ASSESSING IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON ALBEMARLE-PAMLICO SOUND, NORTH CAROLINA: FOUNDATIONS FOR ECOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS

The Albemarle-Pamlico Sound (APS) lagoonal estuary in northeastern North Carolina is the second largest estuarine system in the United States. APS is a dynamic system influenced by seasonal and climate-driven environmental changes, including sea-level rise (SLR). To investigate hydrodynamic responses to these changes, a hindcast simulation for 2019 was developed using Semi-Implicit Cross-Scale Hydrodynamic System Model (SCHISM) and validated with in-situ observations, demonstrating model fidelity. The model grid spatial resolution ranges from ~10 m in river channels to ~4 km in the open ocean and extends ~400 km offshore into the Atlantic Ocean. Inputs include atmospheric forcings, tides, river discharge, and open ocean boundary conditions. We assessed the impacts of SLR by isolating changes in mean sea level (MSL) and examining the resulting hydrodynamic variations in APS under two scenarios: a moderate SLR scenario (CMIP6 SSP370) and a high SLR scenario (SSP585). Model results indicate that MSL changes significantly influence seasonally varying conditions, with spatially heterogeneous impacts on hydrodynamic circulation, salt flux, stratification, and water quality parameters in APS. These findings provide insights into the physical processes driving system responses to SLR. Because these hydrodynamic responses vary spatially, the resulting ecological impacts are also likely to be heterogeneous, influencing habitat suitability and resilience for fisheries-relevant species such as southern flounder (Paralichthys lethostigma), a key fisheries species in the region.

Presentation Preference: Standard Oral (12 Minutes)

Primary Presenter: Katherine Boot, University of North Carolina Wilmington (keb3424@uncw.edu)

Authors:

Qianqian Liu, UNCW  (liuq@uncw.edu)