Social-ecological systems modeling of a recreational fishery under climate change

Wisconsin’s recreational fisheries are experiencing social and ecological changes. Interactions of warming waters, increasing shoreline development, and high levels of harvest are resulting in changes to fish communities that will be difficult or potentially impossible to reverse. Of particular significance is the loss of socially and economically important coolwater species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) in many lakes. Understanding and adapting to the ramifications of these changes requires integrating what we know about changing aquatic ecosystems with the dynamic behavior of recreational anglers. We are developing a simulation model that integrates projected changes in water temperature, fish population dynamics, and recreational angler behavior to investigate their emergent effects on the Wisconsin inland lake fishery under different climate scenarios. Within this model, population dynamics and growth of walleye and bluegill populations are parameterized by empirical data specific to particular lakes or watersheds. Across days and years, simulated recreational anglers with different preferences choose fishing sites based on empirically derived tradeoffs between travel time and fishing quality. In this step of model development, we are cross-validating simulation predictions against empirical observations of fishing effort and harvest. This development of a simple but effective baseline model will allow us to test key biological and social assumptions, evaluate management alternatives, and propose strategies for climate adaptive fisheries management. 

Primary Presenter: Ashley Trudeau, University of Wisconsin Madison (aatrudeau@wisc.edu)

Authors:

Ashley Trudeau, University of Wisconsin, Madison  (aatrudeau@wisc.edu)

Paul Frater, University of Wisconsin Madison  (pnfrater@gmail.com)

Ben Beardmore, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources  (alan.beardmore@wisconsin.gov)

Olaf Jensen, University of Wisconsin Madison  (olaf.p.jensen@gmail.com)

Zachary Feiner, University of Wisconsin Madison  (zsfeiner@wisc.edu)