Declining lake ice safety in response to warming climates

Millions of people rely on lake ice for safe winter recreation. Warming air temperatures impact the phenology (timing of formation and breakup) and quality (ratio of black to white ice) of lake ice cover, both critical components of ice safety. As ice cover duration decreases and ice quality changes in a warming world, the period of safe ice use will similarly diminish. We use a large ensemble modeling approach to predict ice thickness throughout the winter period in the Northern Hemisphere. We focus on the period of ice cover as it transitions from an unsafe thickness (≤ 10 cm) to a safe thickness (≥ 10 cm) for general use (i.e., walking). We find that the period of transition from unsafe to safe ice cover is growing longer, while the total duration of safe ice cover is getting shorter. The transition period of unsafe ice increases by 4.97 ± 3.67 days in a 4 °C warmer world, assuming 100% black ice. Diminished ice quality further limits safe ice conditions. The unsafe transition period increases by an average of 19.8 ± 8.84 days and 8.75 ± 6.63 days for the ice formation and breakup periods, respectively in a 4 °C warmer world assuming 100% white ice conditions. This work highlights the need to understand both lake ice phenology and quality to better assess safe lake ice use during the formation and melt periods.

Primary Presenter: Joshua Culpepper, York University (jaculp@yorku.ca)

Authors:

Joshua Culpepper, York University  (jaculp@yorku.ca)

Lei Huang, Capital Normal University  (huanglei@pusan.ac.kr)

R. Iestyn Woolway, Bangor University  (riwoolway@gmail.com)

Sapna Sharma, York University  (sapna.sharma23@gmail.com)