Improving Predictive Models of Sargassum Drift Using Objective Eulerian Coherent Structures

Forecasting the drift of floating particles, such as plastics, oil spills, and sargassum, is often hindered by uncertainties in ocean surface current fields and the initial locations of these particles. Such uncertainties can lead to large discrepancies between predicted and actual trajectories, complicating both environmental management and mitigation efforts. In this study, we address these uncertainties by incorporating Objective Eulerian Coherent Structures (OECS) into Lagrangian particle-tracking models. The OECS allows us to identify stable, hyperbolic structures in ocean flows that act as transport barriers, providing insight into persistent flow features that strongly influence the drift of floating objects. By leveraging the OECS, we correct Lagrangian trajectories to align with the natural movement patterns governed by these coherent structures, thereby improving the accuracy of drift predictions. Our results demonstrate that using OECS in particle forecasting models provides better forecasts for drifters in most cases, with the potential to improve the forecasting of sargassum rafts and other hazards, such as oil spills and plastics. This approach has immediate applications for enhancing sargassum tracking in the Caribbean, where massive accumulation has caused significant ecological and economic disruptions.

Presentation Preference: Oral

Primary Presenter: Christian Appendini, UNAM - LIPC Sisal (cappendinia@iingen.unam.mx)

Authors:

Ricardo Quintana-Barranco, UNAM  (ricardoandres551@hotmail.com)

Christian Appendini, UNAM  (cappendinia@iingen.unam.mx)

María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, UNAM  (mallende@iingen.unam.mx)

Rodrigo Duran, Planetary Science Institute  (rduran@psi.edu)

Abigail Uribe-Martínez, UABC  (abigail.uribe@uabc.edu.mx)

Carlos Argáez-García, UNAM  (cargaezg@iingen.unam.mx)