ASSESSING THE INFLUENCE OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON SOUTHERN FLOUNDER RECRUITMENT PROCESSES IN ALBEMARLE-PAMLICO SOUND

Albemarle-Pamlico Sound (APS) is a lagoonal estuary and key nursery habitat for southern flounder (Paralichthys lethostigma) in northeastern North Carolina. Over the past decade, flounder abundance has declined due to overfishing and poor recruitment linked to environmental changes. It is crucial to monitor and investigate physical processes that may influence southern flounder recruitment in APS, including sea level rise (SLR). Semi-Implicit Cross-Scale Hydrodynamic System Model (SCHISM) will be used to evaluate how changes in mean sea level affect hydrodynamic circulation and salt flux in APS. A hindcast simulation of 2019 was built and validated using in-situ observations, demonstrating the model’s fidelity. The model grid includes spatial resolutions ranging from the river mouth (~10 m) to the coastal ocean (~4 km) and extends ~ 411 km offshore into the Atlantic Ocean. Model inputs include atmospheric forcings, tides, river discharge and open boundary conditions. The impacts of SLR will be explored by isolating mean sea level (MSL) changes and examining the resulting hydrodynamic shifts in APS through three scenarios: low MSL from 2002, moderate SLR projections from CMIP6 SSP370, and high SLR projections from SSP585. Integrating a statistical model based on trawl survey data from 1987 to 2021 with these scenario-based simulation outputs may provide critical insights into how changes in MSL impact southern flounder recruitment and inform management strategies to preserve this resource in North Carolina.

Presentation Preference: Oral

Primary Presenter: Katherine Boot, University of North Carolina Wilmington (keb3424@uncw.edu)

Authors:

Qianqian Liu, University of North Carolina Wilmington  (liuq@uncw.edu)