GLARM-Proj1: A new dataset for evaluating climate change impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem

The Great Lakes form the largest surface freshwater system in the world and have become a climate change hotspot with disproportionate warming of water. Warming has led to expanding heatwaves, diminishing ice cover, redistribution of fish habitat, and promotion of harmful algal blooms. Aquatic species living near their thermal tolerance are especially vulnerable to a significant increase in temperature. As a result, the projection of the Great Lakes under climate change has been identified as a top research priority by the scientific community. Here, we introduce a new state-of-the-art publicly accessible dataset, GLARM-Proj1, that delivers a comprehensive outlook on the future of the Great Lakes under climate change. It is developed by dynamically downscaling global climate models using the Great Lakes-Atmosphere Regional Model (GLARM), which is a state-of-the-art regional climate modeling system that simulates the Great Lakes at a 1-4 km horizontal and a <5 m vertical resolution using a two-way coupled three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic lake and ice model. GLARM-Proj1 spans from 1981 to 2099 and considers two future emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. GLARM-Proj1 provides a 3D field of daily water temperature, and 2D fields of ice cover and 2-meter air temperature. We also showcase various potential use cases for GLARM-Proj1 in aquatic ecosystem studies, including projections of subsurface heatwaves and how thermal habitats and thermal refuge from abnormally warmer waters may shift for specific fish species in the future.

Presentation Preference: Oral

Primary Presenter: Miraj Kayastha, Michigan Technological University (mkayasth@mtu.edu)

Authors:

Miraj Kayastha, Michigan Technological University  (mkayasth@mtu.edu)

Pengfei Xue, Michigan Technological University  (pexue@mtu.edu)

Chenfu Huang, Michigan Technological University  (chenfuh@mtu.edu)