DEVELOPING A SUSTAINED DELIVERY, MULTI-STRESSOR FORECASTING SYSTEM IN LAKE ERIE THROUGH PARTNERSHIPS AND LEVERAGING EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE

Since 2009 NOAA has been delivering cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom (cyanoHAB) monitoring products and ecological forecasts for western Lake Erie. The initial early warning system was developed using satellite data and hydrodynamic models to provide water resource managers with near-real time information on cyanoHAB location and to forecast likely bloom movement. NOAA later developed a model to predict upcoming seasonal cyanoHAB severity for the western basin. In following years, the seasonal forecast was expanded to include an ensemble of models developed by multiple partners. This year, NOAA is also operationalizing a forecast to predict hypoxic events in Central Lake Erie near-surface waters to support water quality treatment operators. This coupling of forecast infrastructure for cyanoHABs and hypoxia has led to one of the first multi-stressor forecast systems in Lake Erie. Efforts are ongoing to improve forecast accuracy, including developing a mechanistic model to predict seasonal cyanoHAB intensity and ingesting field data into the nowcast/forecast cyanoHAB tracking model. The full suite of forecasting products relies heavily on partnerships to collect field data, develop models and forecasts, provide model inputs, and assist with forecast delivery. As complex water quality issues continue to evolve in Lake Erie due to climate change, changes in nutrient management, and stakeholder needs, NOAA will continue to work closely with federal, state, and local agencies, as well as the research community to further refine this multi-stressor Lake Erie forecasting system.

Primary Presenter: Alexandria Hounshell, NOAA (alexandria.hounshell@noaa.gov)

Authors:

Alexandria Hounshell, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (alexandria.hounshell@noaa.gov)

Yizhen Li, CSS Inc. Consolidated Safety Services, Inc. (Contracted to NOAA’s National Center for Coastal Ocean Science)  (yizhen.li@noaa.gov)

Andrew Meredith, CSS Inc. Consolidated Safety Services, Inc. (Contracted to NOAA’s National Center for Coastal Ocean Science)  (andrew.meredith@noaa.gov)

Mark Rowe, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (mark.rowe@noaa.gov)

Erik Davenport, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (erik.davenport@noaa.gov)

Timothy Wynne, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (timothy.wynne@noaa.gov)

Caroline Owens, CSS Inc. Consolidated Safety Services, Inc. (Contracted to NOAA’s National Center for Coastal Ocean Science)  (caroline.owens@noaa.gov)

Sachidananda Mishra, CSS Inc. Consolidated Safety Services, Inc. (Contracted to NOAA’s National Center for Coastal Ocean Science)  (sachi.mishra@noaa.gov)

Michelle Tomlinson, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (michelle.tomlinson@noaa.gov)

Richard Stumpf, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (richard.stumpf@noaa.gov)