Understanding Climate Change Impacts on Subarctic Lakes: Insights from Long- Term Monitoring in Katmai and Lake Clark National Parks, Southwest Alaska

Global climate change is having widespread, and often nuanced, impacts on aquatic ecosystems around the world, necessitating comprehensive understanding through long-term monitoring studies. For example, lakes in Katmai and Lake Clark National Parks in southwestern Alaska are nestled in a landscape with glaciers and active volcanoes and are in watersheds largely devoid of human development. Despite this, climate change is impacting their water quality and, in turn, their capacity to support iconic species, such as brown bears and sockeye salmon. Subarctic lakes in this region are influenced by local conditions, such as watershed characteristics, meltwater contributions from glaciers and snowmelt and regional shifts in air temperature and weather patterns. Here, we present over a decade of monitoring which show substantial variation in critical water quality parameters. We use ordination and regression-based approaches to evaluate the links between watershed characteristics and regional conditions with lake water quality dynamics at both individual lake and park-wide scales. This study highlights the need for intensive local case studies to fully grasp the nuanced impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems. This work not only enhances our understanding of subarctic ecosystem dynamics but also serves as a valuable foundation for informing adaptive management strategies. Data such as these provide an important knowledge base for adaptation and management of subarctic ecosystems in this and other regions.

Primary Presenter: Matthew Dunkle, Institute for Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks & Dept. Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming (matthewrdunkle@gmail.com)

Authors:

Krista Bartz, Southwest Alaska I&M Network, National Park Service  (Krista_Bartz@nps.gov)

Sarah Collins, Dept. Zoology and Physiology  (sarah.collins@uwyo.edu)

Paul Gabriel, Southwest Alaska I&M Network, National Park Service  (paul_gabriel@nps.gov)

Sadie Textor, Southwest Alaska I&M Network, National Park Service  (sadie_textor@nps.gov)

Jeffrey Muehlbauer, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, U.S. Geological Survey  (jdmuehlbauer@alaska.edu)