Climate change disrupts marine organisms through temperature and chemistry changes, challenging their ability to adapt and survive. While marine protected areas (MPAs) aim to protect marine species and habitats, climate change impacts are often neglected during their design and implementation, raising questions about their long-term effectiveness. We evaluated the resilience to climate change of threatened species and species targeted by fisheries in European MPAs by assessing their exposure to novel climates using climate dissimilarity based on four environmental variables (temperature, oxygen, pH, and primary productivity) coupled with projections of species distributions, from present-day conditions to the end of the 21st century, under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-1.9 and SSP5-8.5). Results show that 6.6% of the species and 0.5% of European MPAs will experience novel climates under SSP1-1.9, and 82% of species and 87% of MPAs under business-as-usual scenario (SSP5-8.5). Most species from MPAs in enclosed and semi-enclosed basins like the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea seem to be exposed to the highest degree of novel climatic conditions. Incorporating future climate change projections into management plans, including protection of possible climate refugia, and meeting Paris Agreement goals is crucial for boosting MPA resilience and reaching international conservation targets, such as the post-2020 Convention on Biological Diversity framework, which aims to expand global MPA coverage to 30% by 2030.

Primary Presenter: Milica Predragovic, Centro de Ciências do Mar do Algarve, University of Algarve (mpredragovic@ualg.pt)

Authors:

Milica Predragovic,   ()

Jorge Assis,   ()

Christopher Cvitanovic,   ()

Rashid Sumaila,   ()

Barbara Horta e Costa,   ()