Anthropogenic climate change is causing major changes in the world’s oceans, affecting the distribution and productivity of marine species of economic and cultural value. In the U.S., federal fisheries managers are engaged in research efforts to further our understanding of the vulnerability of managed fish stocks to climate-driven changes. Contributing to this effort, this study used species distribution modelling combined with downscaled ocean climate projections to project future distributions of 32 species of U.S. West Coast groundfishes. The best-fitting model was chosen for each species based on the combination of bottom temperature, DO, and substrate variables that best predicted withheld data using 2-fold cross-validation. Biomass distributions were then projected for each species in each year from 1980 to 2100. We observed a wide range of future distribution patterns among study species including movement north, movement offshore, an overall decline in CPUE, an overall increase in CPUE, movement deeper in the water column, movement shallower in the water column, a combination of various outcomes, and minimal change in CPUE. Overall, there are many potential consequences of distribution changes for groundfishes along the west coast in response to climate change. Potential outcomes depend on the life history and climate vulnerability status of each species, where generally species with highly sensitive life history patterns and/or are ranked to be the most climate vulnerable show the most concerning distribution patterns.

Primary Presenter: Janelle Layton, Oregon State University (janelle.layton@oregonstate.edu)

Authors:

Owen Liu, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NWFSC, NOAA)  (owen.liu@noaa.gov)

Chris Harvey, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NWFSC, NOAA)  (chris.harvey@noaa.gov)

Eric Ward, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NWFSC, NOAA)  (eric.ward@noaa.gov)

Mercedes Pozo-Buil, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NWFSC, NOAA)  (mercedes.pozo@noaa.gov)