It is increasingly clear that each estuarine system responds to climate change differently. In this context, the present study aims to understand how the physicochemical and biological properties of Sado Estuary, in Portugal, have changed in recent decades due to climate change and other factors. This assessment takes advantage of a rare and high-quality long-term (40 years) dataset of in situ observations that was corrected for seasonal and tidal variations with results of a water quality numerical simulation using the Delft3D suite. In addition, this analysis was complemented with remote sensing datasets to investigate the long-term patterns observed along the different types of boundaries within the system. Preliminary results show a decrease in the river flow, that could in part reflect the influence of climate change in the region. In fact, the area is expected to be increasingly affected by drought periods. Contrastingly, the river flow reduction seems to be moving the system away from scenarios of increased warming, eutrophication or increased nutrient retention, despite the warming patterns typically associated with climate change. These results demonstrate the importance of long-term regional studies for developing climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. Moreover, the results highlight the need to link data science with remote sensing and modeling to surpass the speculative process that is often associated with predicting estuary response to climate change.

Primary Presenter: Beatriz Biguino, Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre (MARE) - Lisbon University (bibiguino@fc.ul.pt)

Authors:

Beatriz Biguino, MARE - Lisbon University  (bibiguino@fc.ul.pt)

Carlos Antunes, IDL - Lisbon University  (cmantunes@fc.ul.pt)

Humberto Pereira, CESAM - Aveiro University  (humberto.pereira@ua.pt)

Ana Picado, CESAM - Aveiro University  (ana.picado@ua.pt)

João Miguel Dias, CESAM - Aveiro University  (joao.dias@ua.pt)

Carlos Borges, Hydrographic Institute  (Carlos.Borges@hidrografico.pt)

Carla Palma, Hydrographic Institute  (Carla.Palma@hidrografico.pt)

Joana P. C. Cruz, MARE - Lisbon University  (jpcruz@fc.ul.pt)

Ivan Haigh, NOC - University of Southampton  (I.D.Haigh@soton.ac.uk)

Ana Brito, MARE - Lisbon University  (acbrito@ciencias.ulisboa.pt)