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Submitted by: Marina Sanz-Martín Ph.D. Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC) marina.sanz@ieo.csic.es

Abstract:

Based on long-term monitoring data of demersal communities in the Western Mediterranean (1994-2019), we calculated seven indicators characterizing the space-time patterns of species distributions and their temporal rates of change. Simultaneously, we computed climate velocity, based on the space-time variation of sea surface temperature. Subsequently, we modeled the space-time patterns in species distributions as responding to climate velocity, conditioned by the temperature and depth affinities of the species. Contrary to the generalized expectation of meridionalization of the Mediterranean communities., our results identify unexpected displacement towards the Southwest and shallower waters in many species. Generally, cold-water species (with an affinity for low and moderate mean temperature and wide and narrow temperature ranges), were better at tracking climate velocity. Further, species distributed over the continental shelf shifted towards shallower waters in response to higher climate velocity; something that also goes against a-priori expectations of shifts towards deeper, cooler waters under warming. Our results also found these species are expanding their ranges of dispersion and the spatial heterogeneity of their population structure, not explicitly in response to climate velocity. These results support the role of climate velocity as a useful metric for predicting species responses at regional and sub-regional levels and provide information on expected species responses at the scales required for informing robust management and conservation measures.

Primary Session Choice: SS069 Promoting Resilience Through Climate-Smart Fisheries and Conservation Management

Authors:

Marina Sanz-Martín, Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC)  (marina.sanz@ieo.csic.es)


Manuel Hidalgo, Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC)  (jm.hidalgo@ieo.csic.es)


Jorge García-Molinos, Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan  (garciamj@tcd.ie)


Patricia Puerta, Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC)  (patricia.puerta@ieo.csic.es)


Isaac Brito-Morales, Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA. Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA  (ibrito@conservation.org)


Marina Zamanillo, Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC)  (mzc730@gmail.com)


José Manuel González-Irusta, Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC).   (jmanuel.gonzalez@ieo.csic.es)


Antonio Esteban, Centro Oceanográfico de San Pedro del Pinatar, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC).   (antonio.esteban@ieo.csic.es)


Antonio Punzón, Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC).   (antonio.punzon@ieo.csic.es)


Encarnación García-Rodríguez, Centro Oceanográfico de San Pedro del Pinatar, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC).   (encarnacion.garcia@ieo.csic.es)


Miguel Vivas, Centro Oceanográfico de San Pedro del Pinatar, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC).   (miguel.vivas@ieo.csic.es)


Lucía López-López, Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Centro Nacional Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CN-IEO, CSIC).   (lucia.lopez@ieo.csic.es)


Mediterranean demersal species shift their distributions to track climate velocity with constrained responses

Category

Scientific Sessions > SS069 Promoting Resilience Through Climate-Smart Fisheries and Conservation Management

Description

Preference: Oral